Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Gold Making a Comeback


The following was posted to Premium Members April 22, 2013...  How to become a Premium Member?  


Donate to my foundation and receive a complimentry newsletter for one year.  Currently ONLY ACCEPTING Gold, Silver and Bitcoins.     

Gold Making a Comeback


It looks like we have found a bottom in POG... for now.  Last week's sell off was completely technical after POG broke the $1550 level  which seemed eerily similar to the flash crash a couple years ago.  I should have waited a week to call the bottom on gold, and would now recommend cashing in your June Puts.  The tremendous force of the sell-off has likely given us our bottom in POG unless we have another liquidation event.  The stocks look like they are going through a capitulation type moment.  I have heard calls for lows of $1,000 for POG and I just don't buy it.  Gold has been in a bear market for 20 months and the stocks even longer.  POG was officially $600 off its high in 2011 which seems like a good time to buy to me.  I keep saying it.... the best place to be is in the GOLD MINING STOCKS and if you were thinking about creating a small fund of the best of the best in the gold mining sector... NOW is the time to do it.

Who would have thunk it that 2013 would be mean $1330 and not $2013...?

Going into 2013... I was sure that Gold would hit $2000 per ounce.

Why are the stocks so attractive...?  because gold at $1300 is now very cheap considering marginal producers like GCM barely make any money at this price.  AND even massive projects like DGC and OSK are having a hard time keep costs under $1000 per ounce.  If there is a concentrated effort to WASH OUT some of the marginal players in the business...  DGC and OSK are two projects that those in the know are not going to shelve.  One BIG THING also going for these stocks is that DGC, OSK, and ANV are all priced for near extinction.  It is up to you to decide if gold is truly at the end of its rope or if this is just another cycle low with a capitulation V shaped bottom in the process.   I for one do not think Gold is over.  The arguments are still intact and there is reason to believe that with a little push here and nudge there... you could bring gold into the 21st Century and make it a true alternative currency and not just a valuable asset that acts as a hedge in times of uncertainty.

I am going to run through some names... the best names to buy right now are the producers. (for the most part they don't need cash.)  The next best names are the top rated developers. They need cash so are less ideal but are attractive because this is where the majors will look for growth outside of buying other producers...  although after FDN and Tsiasist...  I think The majors are little bit more gun shy about massive gold development projects.   Ones with LOW cap cost like PVG and LYD are much more feasible than the $1B capex a project like Midas Golden Meadows rings in at.

So is my list of better than average producers... and in no particular order....


Producers...
  1. Timmins Gold Corp TMM.T $2.65 / Market cap... $387M / 9.5 P/E... San Francisco Gold Mine(Open pit heap leach.)  125,000 to 130,000 ounces @ $600 to $700/oz.
  2. Semafo SMF.TO $1.80 / Market Cap... $502M / 5.0 P/E & Yield @ 2.38% (back out one time impairments)... 3 mines in Burkina Faso; Mana, Samira Hill, Kiniero.  215,000 to 240,000 ounces @ $760 to $810/oz.
  3. Aurico Gold AUQ.TO $4.83 / Market Cap... $1.2B / 67.7 P/E & Yield @ 3.36%... Young Davidson in Canada and El Chante in Mexico. 190,000 to 220,000 ounces @ $565 to $645/oz.
  4. New Gold NGD.TO $7.37 / Market Cap... $3.5B / 16.0 P/E... New Afton, Cerro San Pedro, Mesquite, Peak Mines.  440,000 to 480,000 ounces @ $265 to $285/oz.  
  5. B2 Gold Corp BTO.TO $2.44 / Market Cap... $1.6B / 15.2 P/E... Masbate Mine/Phillipines; La Libertad & Limon Mines/Nicaragua.  385,000 ounces @ $550 to $600/oz.(Nicaragua only) Another 200,000 ounces to come online in Africa.
  6. Petaquilla Minerals PTQ.TO $0.39 / Market Cap... $87M / 5.1 P/E... Molejon Gold Project in Panama. 75,000 to 80,000 ounces @ $550 to $600/oz.
  7. Osisko Mining OSK.TO $3.86 / Market Cap... $1.7B / 17.5 P/E... Malartic Gold Mine, Quebec is make or break in 2013... 485,000 to 510,000 ounces @ $780 to $825/oz.
  8. Detour Gold Corp DGC.TO $11.11 / Market Cap... $1.3B / N.A. P/E... Detour Lake Mine, Ontario... 350,000 to 400,000 ounces @ $800 to $900 per oz.
  9. Allied Nevada ANV.TO $11.23 / Market Cap... $1B / 20.7 P/E...  Hycroft Mine in Nevada. 225,000 to 250,000 ounces au and 1.5M to 1.8M ounces of ag @ $565 to $585/oz au(net credits). Expansion to 552,000 ounces au and 25M ounces of Ag... 2015 to 2024 (call option on silver).
  10. Argonaut Gold AR.TO $6.00 / Market Cap... $917M / 7.9 PE... El Castillo and La Colorada Open Pit Heap Leach in Mexico. 120,000 to 140,000 ounces @ $630 to $660/oz. Magino Mine Mine in Ontario focus of growth.
  11. Primero Mining P.TO $5.35 / Market Cap... $540M / 10.9 PE... San Dimas Gold Mine in Mexico. 90,000 to 100,000 ounces au & 6.0M to 6.5M ounces ag @ $280 to $300/oz au(net credits).
  12. Eldorado Gold ELD.TO $7.57 / Market Cap...$5.4B / 15.1 PE & Yield @ 1.9%... 705,000 to 760,000 ounces @ $515 to $530/oz
  13. Yamina Gold YRI.TO $12.08 / Market Cap... $9.2B / 19.0 PE & Yield @ 2.24%... 1.44M to 1.6M ounces @ $385 to $450/oz 
  14. Kinross Gold K.TO $5.66 / Market Cap... $6.4B / NA PE & Yield @ 2.94%... 2.6M ounces @ $700/oz

Developers...

  1. Pretvim Gold PVG.TO $6.50....                        11.4M ounces @ 17.0 g/t au
  2. Lydian International LYD.TO $1.67...                 4.1M ounces @ ~1.00 g/t au
  3. Belo Sun Mining BSX.TO $0.95...                       6.9M ounces @   1.70 g/t au
  4. Atac Resources ATC.V $1.20...                         (Small resource on the Tiger Zone)
  5. Seabridge Gold SEA.TO $10.86...                    64M ounces @   0.5 g/t au plus ag and cu credits
  6. Sabina Gold and Silver Corp SBB.TO $1.12...    6.5M ounces @  ~6 g/t au 
  7. Sandspring Resources SSP.V $0.23...                8.4M ounces @ 0.7 g/t au
  8. Guyana Goldfields GUY.TO $1.64...                    8.4M oucnes @ 3.5 g/t au
  9. Columbus Gold CGT.V $0.26...                           5.4M ounces @ 1.44 g/t au
  10. Gabriel Resources GBU.TO $1.45...                  15.8M ounces @ 1.4 g/t au
  11. Asanko Gold AKG.TO $2.62...                             9.6M ounces @ 1.8 g/t au  
I would be concentrating on the gold producers as a rebound in the price of gold will guarantee a rebound in price while a price drop in POG will mean little downside for many of these beaten up names.  At current prices... risk reward is heavily in your favor and 5 of the producers mentioned even pay a nice yield at current levels.  Some of the producers are priced like they are going to have to cash up and for most of these low cost producers... I do not see that as a problem.

AND WHEN Gold bounces up....  The producers as a whole are priced extremely cheap.  All of the above producers are great investments and will remain on target for growth as long as POG stays above $1000 per ounce.  If POG drops below that mark.  I will be re-evaluating the entire long term theme and outlook for gold.

The opportunity is now too good to pass up... unless of course you beleive this space is dead. Not me.

Friday, April 26, 2013

Lomiko Metals & Graphene Labs


Building the World’s First Vertically Integrated Graphene Company


Lomiko Metals LMR.V 
Share Price: $0.06

Share Data:
Shares Out.....67.94M
Options……......5.13M @ ~$0.11
Warrants……...1.8M   @ ~$0.12
Fully Diluted....74.84M
 

Market Cap: $4.08M

Cash: ~ $100k
Proposed $500k @ $0.06 Private Placement

Graphite… An Abundant, Not So Critical Metal

There have been quite a few developments in the graphite industry.  Fundamental changes have materially transformed the investing landscape for graphite stocks.  Last year’s run up in graphite stocks, many companies doubling in a day trading millions of shares on property acquisitions was indeed something special.  Parabolic moves for an entire group of stocks and a sector being born overnight, does not happen every day.  It takes a lot of things to happen at once.  Good promotion, a real investment case, price moves in the underlying commodity, a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines with nothing to do, a bunch of hungry investors…. and of course, a really good story.  Now that we have recovered from the hangover of last year’s run up in graphite stocks, where are we going from here?  

Was 2012’s graphite run-up a sign of graphite being critical?  Or were there other elements at work that played into this story?  In retrospect, graphite is not at all critical like rare earths are critical in the supply chain and most of the price run-up in 2011 for graphite was due to buyers stockpiling graphite in anticipation of the Chinese mine closures. There is no true supply crunch for graphite and there won’t be a supply crunch for quite a while.  The steel industry is seeing signs of slow growth curbing industrial demand for graphite.  Demand is not materializing in incremental industries such as electric vehicle and graphene (nor was it really expected to before 2015).  In addition to slow growth in demand… there have been several massive graphite discoveries which have the capability to supply the entire incremental graphite market for the next 25 years.

What was good about the run up in 2012 was it made everyone aware of graphite and the potential of this material to change the world.  We are now cognisant that we need a supply of graphite and even though graphite may not be critical; if we don’t establish supply chains for the material it will eventually be a sector like rare earths where for extended periods of time you won’t be able to get any.  A position you do not want to be in when you are in a technology driven race with other companies and nations.  After an 18 month rush, we have found the deposits outside of China that can meet the 2.5 million tonnes of demand that is forecasted by the mid 2020’s.  The deposits discovered in 2012 are both massive and high grade and have the potential to be significant low cost producers producing graphite between $200 and $400 per tonne.

3 major bulk tonnage discoveries of graphite deposits which dwarf anything the industry has seen inside or outside of China…
  1. Syrah Resources’ Balama West and Balama East, Mozambique… recently announced a 564Mt inferred resource at 9.8% Cg.  SYR has a high grade zone of 157Mt @ 17.1%Cg. Once fully defined Balama will total close to a 1 billion tonne resource.  So far Balama is the biggest and highest grading flake graphite deposit anywhere in the world and will be the lowest cost producer in the industry.
  2. Energizer Resources’ Green Giant, Madagascar… recently announced a global resource of 144.3Mt’s @ 6.33% indicated & inferred.  Molo is defined for a little over 1km in strike length within more than 70km of graphite structures.   Energizer could easily define a billion tonne resource on Green Giant like Syrah’s Balama.
  3. Graphite One’s Graphite Creek, Alaska… recently announced 164.5Mt @ 4.61% Cg inferred and is expected to grow to a half billion tonne resource.  Graphite Creek is strategically located near tidewater giving this location a shipping advantage over many graphite projects.  Graphite Creek also has a high grade zone of 25Mt grading 9.69%Cg.

Anyone who thought they could acquire a small to midsize graphite deposit grading less than 10% and build a mine… the chances have diminished significantly competing against 300,000 tonnes of additional low cost graphite supply from these three projects.
 
AND THAT IS JUST START UP PRODUCTION FOR THESE MASSIVE GRAPHITE PROJECTS

Capacity for all three could be in excess of 1.5M tonne per year.  More than the entire current graphite market at 1.2Mt to 1.3Mt and enough to realistically supply even the loftiest of forecasted demand expectations.

Graphite is not at all critical after the three discoveries made last year.  There is a surplus of graphite around the world and the deposits discovered in 2012 will make sure there is a surplus of graphite for years to come.  Unless you have GRADE to match the low cost production of SYR or EGZ like Mason Graphite, unless you have developed a strategic processing technology to make a value added product like spherical graphite like Northern Graphite, unless you have developed strategic partnerships in niche areas like graphene research and production like Focus and Lomiko Metals, unless you have extremely high purity or other unique characteristics such as lump graphite like Zenyatta.  There is not going to be much room in this industry on the mining side of the equation.

Company Project Tonnes Grade Production Market Cap
Syrah Resources SYR:AUX Balama West 564Mt 9.8%Cg 200,000t* $240M
Energizer Resources EGZ:TSE Green Giant 140Mt 6.3%Cg 84,000t $30M
Graphite One GPH:VSE Graphite Creek 164.5Mt 4.61%Cg 65,000t* $14M
Mason Graphite LLG:VSE Lac Gueret 7.6Mt 20.4%Cg 50,000t $31M


The Investment Theme Hasn't Changed, But the Vehicle You are About to Get Into Better Have 

If you are expecting to invest in a graphite mine and profit off of the Electric Vehicle and Graphene Revolutions, you are probably a decade or two too early. There is just way too much of the stuff around the globe and it is way too easy to put in production with little to no barriers to entry.   Graphene research and production is now taking off and the commercialization of several products appears to be around the corner.  Graphene technology is poised to be a major growth driver in the future.   BUT… the amount of graphene sold in a year you could store in the trunk of your car.  This should highlight that it does not take a lot of graphite to produce graphene and it will take the commercialization and production of several products before graphene is able to make a dent into the demand equation.  Once the commercialization process commences in earnest for things like Graphene Super Capacitors and/or Graphene Semiconductors  followed by other areas of technology, then you can expect demand for graphite from graphene production to increase.

But again… when and by how much?    

When are Electric Vehicles going to go MAIN STREAM?  

Charge times and driving distance remain the two biggest stumbling blocks.  Aside from Tesla, whose product still has trouble driving 200 kilometers, electric vehicles are still novelty items at best meant for short trips in the city.  Compiling problems into the demand equation is price point, when you have a price point well above a gas vehicle that does the same thing and more… you are not going to sell that many.  Lithium ion batteries need a big upgrade.  Electric vehiclesand hybrids will continue to make a big impact on graphite demand over the next 10 years... but a second generation of batteries will be required before the public is willing to accept the technology as mainstream with adoption rates past 20%.  



The infrastructure is nothing to write home about either which does nothing to encourage EV use and adoption rates.   None of the potential demand drivers of the next 10 years have materialized as of yet and from the looks of it… won’t materialize on schedule until some tweaks have been made to the technology.  One encouraging development is a graphene silicon combination in the anode of the battery which would provide 4 times the power and speed up charge times significantly.

Graphene Silicon Nanoplatelets Increase Lithium-Ion Battery Capacity 4 Fold | CleanTechnica

The graphene and EV thesis is still intact.  These are two technologies that are going to change the world as we know it for the better.   What one cannot ascertain with any certainty is how these two emerging technologies are going to affect the graphite market, let alone timing when demand will increase and by how much.  Predicting consumer behavior… you might as well call upon spirits and ghosts, what is certain is what drives consumer behavior and that is introducing disruptive technology. 

Remember the company that introduced the last disruptive technology?

 AAPL …. iPod, iPhone, & iPad.... Ring a bell?

It stopped short of a $1000 this year because Apple has lost its edge… but Apple’s share price resurgence from $7 to $770 dollars in 10 years shows what happens when you get a hold of disruptive technology.  Disruptive technology like graphene or TESLA’s electric vehicles (which are selling like hot cakes) … that is what happens to your company… TSLA in my opinion is still CHEAP, considering one day they will sell more cars than any other auto manufacturer.


 


Graphite, Graphene, & Li Ion Batteries
 
Graphite is a metal that is vital for our future and progress as a society.  Graphite is revolutionary many ways.  Graphite is the base material in lithium ion battery technology which is driving hybrids and electric vehicles.  Hybrids and EV’s are driving a Green Future with clean air.  Changing over to EVs is a simple way to positively impact where we live and improve our living standards as a society.  Graphite is also at the basis of graphene production which is going to impact us humans far greater than ‘clean air’ vehicles.   

Graphene is poised to revolutionize the computer industry with many ‘techies’ comparing it to the ‘next silicon’ predicting it will change the computing industry as much or even more than silicon did.   It is poised to revolutionize the battery industry with Graphene Super Capacitors; graphene is literally poised to revolutionize anything it touches.  The fact that graphene represents so many things to so many different people is precisely what makes this 2D material so special.  It is not just one small group of people jumping up and down championing graphene.  It is EVERYONE!

Over 12,878 graphene patents at the end of 2012 to date confirm that this material has the potential to change the world.

Undeniably, graphite is a metal vital for our future.  If we do not manage the resource properly and support production outside of China, it will eventually become critical.  The entire theme and thesis merits investment.  The question is do you expose yourself to the disruptive technology that Graphene/Lithium Ion Batteries represent?  Or do you buy the graphite mines knowing that eventually demand will materialize and the biggest deposits today represent the multibillion dollar graphite miners 25 years from? 

If one is not trying being vigilant, and trying to establish and protect supply chains… Risk, reward and opportunity state the answer is glaringly obvious. 

Buying a mine and waiting for graphite demand to materialize is like waiting for hockey riot to break out in a Canadian city.  We all know it is going to happen, it always does at least once a decade but trying to guess the time or place is next to impossible.   It also exposes you to unneeded risk relying on several contingent events to happen before there ever is a graphite mine craze.  Investing in the EV and graphene themes directly is less risky and will reward you sooner and with bigger returns while investing in a mine is a call option on the entire theme.

The problem is the mine investment is dependent on EV and/ graphene working and then it is also partly dependent on technology not changing for instance with lithium ion batteries.  There will be many companies that make millions of dollars on graphene and electric vehicles before the mines ever see those types of exponential demand growth due to the success of electric vehicles.  Investing in the mine, although strategic, is putting the cart before the horse.  TESLA will double and triple and quadruple before its line of products will create the kind of supply shortages in the industry.  The Chinese will need an electric car success of their own and if you want to predict when… it could be when the Chinese commercialize with success their first EV.   The Chinese are the emerging consumer market to watch.  When they finally “get it right…” that is when graphite demand takes off.

Which vehicle are you getting into?
                       

OR

 



 The Great Graphene Race

Graphene is just starting to spread its wings and is at the point where many R & D departments are making initial attempts to commercialize across several different industries.   Companies are finding real world applications for the 2D material which has set the ball in motion for graphene specialty companies like Graphene Labs to scale up their production from pilot to industrial scale production of graphene.  Graphene Labs have recognized the opportunity in the graphene sector to supply these companies as they transition from research into development and then ultimately to commercialization.  These companies are at the point where they need a reliable supply of graphene to start building prototypes and early assembly line editions of their graphene related products.  Graphene Labs (the largest seller of graphene to R and D departments) own the Graphene Super Market and Maximum Materials is partnering with Lomiko Metals seeking capital to aggressively expand  production of their novel graphene products and go after this lucrative market by building a vertically integrated graphene company from mine to market getting a leg up on the competition by industrializing their production process early.

While many graphite deposits will get left behind with the emergence of the monster flake graphite deposits in Africa, there is another race materializing before our eyes.   I fear many of us are missing the boat still looking to traditional Canadian investing avenues such as mining.  We should be exposing ourselves directly to the disruptive technologies that are changing the landscape which are also central to driving the investing theme.  Is it not strange to talk about lithium ion batteries and graphene for hours and then choose to buy a potential graphite mine than buy Tesla or a graphene company?

When I said “buy them all,” there were 10 to 15 companies to realistically support to help be vigilant of graphite supply chains.  Not the 80 to 100 graphite mining stocks that now populate the graphite market.  This is completely ridiculous and an utter waste of a lot of capital.  AND it draws away investment from the real mines that one day will go into production and who need the capital.  So while you have 100 companies trying to sell graphite deposits with no realistic expectation of production, you have 5 or 6 companies listed on the western public markets that have direct exposure to graphene and electric vehicles.

These companies have missed the boat…
ALL THE WHILE THE REAL RACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP…

A race where the prize is an Apple or Google type valuation….
 
…..The Great Graphene Race

12,878 patents filed related to the 2 dimensional material speak volumes of the worldwide interest in the material.   Samsung and China are the leading entities driving this technological revolution.   China is determined to electrify as much as possible and graphene will play a huge role in serving China’s electricity and clean energy needs.  Graphene is a key component of making the transfer and storage of electricity much more efficient.  Emerging technologies like Graphene Super Capacitors could replace the battery and graphene in the anode of a li-ion battery are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to technologies that will improve electrical storage and delivery. 

Graphene is also at the forefront of a new generation of electronics.  Graphene antennas could enable wireless Terabyte downloads within seconds and graphene touchscreens could be foldable, bendable and stretchable units you wrap around your wrist like a watch.  One of graphene’s most notable properties is its conductibility and applicability in circuits which explains why so many high tech companies have applied for patents involving graphene.

And it is not just electronics which only require microscopic amounts of graphene.   Graphene solar cells are a promising area of interest, improving solar cell technology exponentially and making it a viable alternative energy technology.  Graphene membranes are promising to make the desalination of sea water possible giving pretty much everyone in the world access to clean drinking water.   Recently Chinese scientists created an ‘aerogel’ out of graphene that is seven times lighter than air… something that may make NASA’s graphene space elevator a possibility.  New graphene applications are being invented on a daily basis which makes this material the most exciting place to be invested…

EVER!

Public companies involved in Graphene research, product development, and production listed in the US include…
  • Graftech International $7.63/$1.03B (GTI:NYSE) Manufactures graphite related products and holds 232 patents related to graphene.
  • CVD Equipment Corp $10.10/$61.1M (CVV:NASDAQ) offer coatings of graphene products by chemical vapor deposition.
  • American Graphite Technologies $0.85/$66M (AGIN:OTC) is trying to commercialize graphene or ‘bucky’ paper. 
 And it is not just the niche and specialty players driving graphene technology forward, IBM and Samsung are heavyweights banking on graphene improving their industries.  Graphene could be a bet that catapult’s these companies to the top of their peer groups.  Most notably it seems electronics and computing companies are at the forefront of where graphene where it will be first applied commercially.  It makes sense considering these technologies require the least amount of graphene, thus the most easily produced and applicable. 
  • Samsung  413 patents $191B
  • Sandisk 235 patents  $12.6B
  • BASF 112 patents $60.7B
  • IBM 221 patents $208.5B
  • Cannon 122 patents $44.8B
  • GE 87 patents $223.6B
If you were betting on companies that may introduce disruptive products to the marketplace… look no further than the heavyweights listed above.   

North America’s Laissez Faire Attitude Leaves a Funding Vacuum

While North America has been ‘laissez faire’ about funding graphene companies, money has started pouring in for graphene research in other markets.   Graphene Nanochem (GRPH:AIM) recently raised $50M in London to develop graphene enhanced products for the oil services field.  Other than the multi-billion dollar companies listed above, there is still little funding available and what is done is by private ‘Angel’ investors seeking big returns and taking huge chunks of the company where the start-up investors automatically are ‘drowned out’.  Not an ideal situation for most Tech start-ups.

Private companies involved with graphene…
  • Graphenea… Sells CVD graphene as well as graphene oxide and is based out of Spain.  The company has raised more than $3M since inception.  
  • PlanarTECH… Own the Graphene Platform and sell CVD graphene as well as a variety of graphene and 2D material samples and is based out of Texas. 
  • Graphene Technologies… Own a novel technology that produces graphene from carbon dioxide.
  • Graphene Labs… Produce graphene and other 2D materials such as Boron Nirtrate; own the Graphene Super Market and Maximum Material, the largest sellers of graphene with $1M in sales and are based out of the state of New York. 
  • Grafoid… Filed a patent for a technology in Nov of 2012 for inexpensive exfoliation of graphene; Focus Metals FMS.V holds a majority interest in Grafoid. Developing novel graphene applications such as high performance graphene electrochemical energy systems and graphene cooling systems for EV and LED application.
 This funding vacuum has left an opportunity for investors to provide capital to graphene related companies trying to expand and commercialize their products.  One such company ready for the money is Graphene Labs who has pilot scale production of graphene and is the largest retailer of graphene products to R and D departments across the globe.  This puts Graphene Labs in a unique position/opportunity to supply these companies as they start to commercialize their products.   The ‘Catch 22’ is Graphene Labs needs money to expand and commercialize as well.  A feat in this deleveraging environment that costs most companies an arm and a leg AND their soul.

Lomiko and Graphene Labs Partner Up… LMR ACQUIRES EXCLUSIVE EQUITY RIGHTS

LMR made some huge milestones at Quatre Milles regarding their metallurgy that put Quatre Milles in the map in the science community as being a one of a kind flake graphite deposit with 11 of 35 sieve samples testing 99.9999%C. The high quality graphite grabbed the attention of Graphene Labs who need the highest purity graphite flake for the graphene production process.  Graphene Labs made a supply agreement with Lomiko to supply all the material for Graphene Labs. More importantly, Lomiko also has access to capital where Graphene Labs can maintain control of the company in an initial partnership to raise capital.  If the initial agreement works out and Lomiko can raise the capital required then it could lead to an even closer union down the road as Graphene Labs establishes themselves as a mine to market graphene company

For the two fledgling companies in the Graphene Revolution, this initial partnership makes sense for both companies.  Quatre Milles being an unlimited source of 99.9999% pure graphite while Graphene Labs has the direct exposure to the disruptive technology Angel investors crave.   Quatre Milles purity is central to the entire deal as it ensures Graphene Labs will be able to produce the highest quality graphene of anyone in the business.  When it comes to graphene… not all graphene is alike.  Graphene required in electronic and electrical applications will be required to have a much higher purity than graphene that is destined for coatings such as in sporting goods.  Having the highest purity content available is of the utmost importance if your graphene is destined to go into the anode of a lithium ion battery or applied in circuitry.

EXCLUSIVE EQUITY RIGHTS!!!

The caveat…???  Of course, nothing is ever that easy…. Lomiko needs to raise $2M over the next 2 years for this EXCLUSIVE equity position up to a 49% in Graphene Labs.  Plus Lomiko needs to continue to fund the development of Quatre Milles.  The good news is the potential revenue from Quatre Milles went way up while the cost of supplying Graphene Labs went way down considering a 50 tonne bulk sample will provide Graphene Labs with more than enough material for the next 2 years.  A 50 tonne bulk sample could even be done as part of a PEA on Quatre Milles meaning it will cost Lomiko next to nothing to supply Graphene Labs with the material they need. 

This is MASSIVELY GAME CHANGING news for Lomiko and Graphene Labs…

For $3M to $4M in equity raises over the next two years… Lomiko will own a 49% stake in a Graphene company who are commercializing their production processes AND will be able to supply Graphene Labs with all the 99.99% pure flake graphite they need through a cheap bulk sample while putting a low cost high value PEA on the project.
NOW THAT IS VALUE FOR YOUR BUCK!!!
ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING YOU ARE BUYING DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY… NOT JUST A MINE.
There is not much available in the small cap sector when it comes to DIRECT EXPOSURE TO GRAPHENE which makes the strategic deal between Lomiko and Graphene Labs a unique opportunity for any investor.  Graphene Labs is at the center of this disruptive technology” supplying as many industries as possible.  They are the largest retailer of graphene to R&D departments around the globe with $1M in sales.  This will translate into huge growth in sales as the R and D departments they supply commercialize their products. The sales potential over the next 5 to 10 years of Graphene Labs could grow from $1M to $100M to $1B…

That is the type of potential Graphene Labs and other graphene companies have.  
Lomiko just went from a company with high quality flake deposit and a potential $100M plus valuation if mine production for graphite commenced… to a company that has taken a stake in the biggest game changing material since plastic, graphene.    I can’t even imagine what the $$$ valuation for a graphene company is… the cheapest one I know of is FMS worth $52M.  And they don’t even sell graphene!!!  Lomiko’s current valuation is $4M and most of the companies mentioned above are multi-billion dollar companies.  The stakes in the Graphene game are hugeThe barriers to entry are highAnd LMR just struck a deal for a big piece of the action in this emerging industry…  HELLO?!?!?  I cannot imagine someone is going to ignore Lomiko and Graphene Labs for too much longer.

 The stakes are just too high and Lomiko is just WAY TOO CHEAP.

Graphene Sells for $100 per Gram and Up!

Graphene Labs sells graphene oxide for $100 per gram and up.  Not that I expect graphene to continue to sell for $100 a gram and Graphene Labs is targeting a price point of $10 per gram.  These are just samples from the pilot production process so like any ‘new’ product to the market, the price is high until Graphene Labs scales up production to an industrial level for which they think they can reduce the price by 90% and be profitable… but even if graphene dropped 95% to $5 per gram half of Graphene Labs target price… in mining terms… that is still $5,000,000 per tonne of graphene.



$5,000,000 MILLION DOLLARS…. PER TONNE
  • Regular graphite sells for $800 to $1500 per tonne. 
  • Spherical graphite sells for $5,500 to $7,500 per tonne. 
  • Synthetic graphite sells for $7500 to $30,000 per tonne. 

At $5 per gram… the revenue differential between a graphite mine and a graphene company is staggering.  EVEN AT $1 per gram that is 33 times the price of the highest priced synthetic graphite.

While most graphite producers are focusing on upgrading their product for the battery market which nets $5,500 to $7,500 per tonne… this technology is already at risk of being supplanted by graphene technology.   Lomiko will be a supplying a market which currently is project to sell for $10M per tonne in comparison.

UNDENIABLY…
The Graphene market is the Holy Grail of graphite.
 Not the synthetic graphite market.   Not the spherical graphite market.  Not the flake graphite market. 

Graphene Labs/Lomiko should have a premium valuation to anyone in the industry.  For a tech company in the highest growth industry with $1M in sales… you might pay up to a 100 times revenue and call it cheap on future earnings.  For starters, the LMR/Graphene Labs JV should have somewhere between a $25M to $75M valuation similar to Focus Metals or CVD Equipment.  NOT $4 MILLION!!!  Although neither FMS nor CVV offer the scope of graphene and 2D products that Graphene Labs do.  The investing and growth potential in such few companies hasn’t been this good since the TECH boom and bust. I still scratch my head and wonder LMR can still be sitting at $0.06 after the series of game changing news releases last quarter.

And because there are so few companies… the dollars looking for graphene investments will eventually come, they always do, it just takes someone else to do it and be the pioneer chasing the dream…  AND everyone will be chasing the same stocks; eventually putting a premium on ALL graphene related stocks.   Lomiko and Graphene Labs truly have a tiger by the tail.  For a $0.06 company, there has never been a better opportunity… If the share price starts to reflect the true value and potential of the company with $1M in sales …  unheard of for a ‘mining stock’… raising the capital required over the next 2 years will not be hard at all.  LMR just needs a little boost in SP and some market support.

For most, graphene is still not on the radar, but just because it isn’t on the radar of most investors… doesn’t mean graphene isn’t quietly inspiring a tech revolution in science.  Graphene Labs is determined to capitalize on the ‘Graphene Revolution’ and partnering with Lomiko Metals is the first step in building a vertically integrated mine to market graphene company.  What Graphene Labs has recognized is that having access to capital, expanding to industrial production and becoming a low cost producer are key traits to winning the Graphene Race.  Graphene Labs is ready to take that next step; scale up and take graphene production from ‘pilot’ to ‘industrial’.

Who are Graphene Labs?

Graphene Labs is a company who specializes in the manufacture and sale of research material to Research and Development markets around the globe.  They are a team of science oriented individuals who are using their expertise in nanomaterials to bring functional graphene materials and devices to the market.  The team of scientists headed by CEO Dr. Elena Poloyakova possess extensive experience in characterization of structural and electronic properties of graphene.  These skills and knowledge of 2D materials give Graphene Labs a competitive edge over most.  At best the competition is limited to just a few like companies like PlanarTech, CVD Equipment and Graphenea.  Graphene Labs is the biggest of the group and offers the widest selection of graphene and 2D products including...
  • Boron Nitrate
  • MOS2
  • CVD (chemical vapor deposition) graphene from CVD on metals to 3D CVD graphene
  • Graphene Nanopowder
  • Graphene Coatings
  • Graphene Oxide in the form of films, powders and solutions
  • Graphene TEM grids
  • 3D graphene Foams
The company even sells various forms of graphite including flake, high crystalline, nano graphite, carbon black, amorphous and kish graphite.   If you look at what other companies offer like PlanarTech’s Graphene Platform’ and then go to ‘The Graphene Supermarket’ to compare… Graphene Labs is by far and away superior.



When you have team of scientists running company who are experts in the field, it gives the company extensive human capital.   It shows with the product offering which is second to none when it comes to graphene and 2D materials.  The human capital factor can never be underestimated.  The human spirit is very resilient and can always bounce back, whereas a company like Graphene Technologies is relying on a specific technology to work.  Both companies will have the potential to profit immensely off the Graphene Revolution, but Graphene Labs is at the center of it all offering everything that the graphene industry has to offer.  Securing the Quatre Milles deposit which has the purest graphite around means Graphene Labs will continue produce the highest quality graphene in the industry. 



Graphene Labs are the biggest sellers of graphene with $1M in sales.  No other graphene company can boast that.
  • They are THE leading supplier in nanocarbon and graphene products and other 2D materials.
  • They have a million dollars in sales of graphene to their R and D markets.

The strategy is simple.  Supply R and D markets with the best graphene available on the market and eventually your R and D clients become commercial clients looking to commercialize a product.  Graphene Labs currently has pilot scale production capability and will be looking to scale up their graphene production process to industrial scale.  This will allow the company to continue to grow and be a leading supplier of 2D materials in the industry.  Given the company already has $1M in sales revenue; they have a first mover advantage over almost everyone in the industry and an extensive customer base as graphene technology continues to progress. 

A graphene production company with actual graphene sales looking to expand production and sales!!!

The potential is as good as it gets.  Not anywhere on the market do you get a company loaded with the best human capital in the business, has graphene sales with an extensive customer base AND has secured the best flake graphite deposit in the business, ideal to produce the highest quality graphene.

What is the price of Lomiko Metals again? 

6 cents!!! AND a $4M market cap… with the right to an exclusive 49% equity stake GRAPHEN LABS… a company who is at the center of this disruptive technology…  ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

Yes I will confirm the rumors… Canadians are cheap… but this valuation defies any logic or common sense in an industry that is on the verge of changing the world.  I would pay $100M for the WORLD LEADING GRAPHENE COMPANY.  Which is what Graphene Labs is… one of the World Leading Graphene and 2D Materials Companies.

A $4M valuation and at the center of the most disruptive technology the world has ever seen.
 It defies all logic!!!


Disruptive Technology… Billion Dollar Potential

Disruptive technology has the type of power to make billionaires out of thin air.  For graphene… it won’t be just one person who masters it.  The opportunities are limitless with new applications and presenting themselves on a daily basis.  That is why Graphene Labs is a great bet and play on the entire industry.  You are not dependant on one technology as graphene will produce graphene for whoever needs it.  Graphene Labs is the best way to play the entire graphene sector as they company success is dependent on graphene’s success.   The evolution of this technology in just one year is mind boggling.  The discoveries are not slowing down.  Over 12,800 patent applications regarding graphene speak volumes to the potential of this market across hundreds of different companies and nations.   If you wanted a ground floor opportunity in a sector where the potential is truly blue sky… it is Lomiko and Graphene Labs.

The Great Graphene Race will provide that opportunity… the chance at billions in potential revenue.   In all the time I have been around the market…   I HAVE NEVER SEEN A BETTER SPECULATIVE OPPORTUNITY THAN GRAPHENE.  But then again… never have I seen anything that is poised to change the world quite like graphene.   Being a Canadian company you should be proud that WE HAVE A CUTTING EDGE GRAPHENE TEAM CHOSING TO BUILD THEIR COMPANY ON OUR MARKETS. 

100 different companies started chasing the graphite story last year when it became apparent that electric vehicles and graphene were going to change the landscape.  These companies missed the mark when the REAL STORY and opportunity IS electric vehicles and Graphene.   Not graphite.

GRAPHENE IS THE GREATEST DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY THE WORLD HAS EVER SEEN.   

Graphene is a market where barriers to entry are high and where 100 companies cannot appear overnight on the investing landscape.  The barriers to entry into the Graphene Industry are enormous which provides just another reason to own Lomiko and Graphene Labs…
  • EXCLUSIVE EQUITY RIGHTS to Graphene Labs
  • The purest flake graphite deposit in the industry
  •  Building a vertically integrated graphene company from mine to market 
And maybe the biggest reason to own Lomiko… is the ground floor opportunity at a $4M valuation which screams this stock should be green lighted to $0.50.  AND most likely will be green lighted one day.

I am not saying Graphene Labs is the best graphene company around… but it is.  I am not saying LMR has made the best decision for shareholder growth… but they have.   Hell, I am not even saying that supplying the most R and D departments around the globe will translate into enormous sales… but it will.  What I do know is Graphene Labs is the most diverse graphene company with the greatest product offering and the greatest amount of R & D sales to R & D around the globe.  It is a research team in 2D materials headed by Elena which is second to none in the industry.  

I don’t know about you… but I am extremely excited about the opportunity for BLUE SKY growth that Graphene Labs and Lomiko have made in their partnership.  From mine to market, Lomiko Metals is Canada’s first ‘true’ graphene company.


Christopher Skidmore .... YOU BET  I OWN LOMIKO SHARES!!!

Beat the Market Stock Picks 

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Excelsior Mining MIN.V



Most Undervalued COPPER STOCK on the VANCOUVER VULTURE EXCHANGE




Excelsior Mining MIN.V
Share Price:    12 cents
Market Cap: $6.3 million


Shares Data:
Voting Common Stock…52.87M (8.5M in escrow)
Non-voting Common Stock… 7M
Stock Options… 10.99M
Warrants… 9.57M
Fully diluted…. 80.44M



Do you know why they call it the VULTURE EXCHANGE? 

Every so often prices get to such extremes on the VSE that the vultures come out of their Howe Street roosts and pick apart the dead carcasses in the wasteland that is the Vulture Stock Exchange...  Errr... I mean Canadian Venture Stock Exchange, or is that Vancouver Stock Exchange?  I can never keep up with all the name changes.

At current prices, opportunity abounds on this market with future mines being sold down with little or not much more discretion than your typical fast lane Howe Street Pump & Dump run by your typical greased up broker.  You literally have future mines and Howe Street Pump and Dumps (which do not have a hope in hell of ever in finding an economic discovery, let alone ever building a mine) priced the same.  When it comes to stocks… I have never seen such craziness in the junior mining industry.  


CLEARLY THE INDUSTRY IS PRICED FOR ARMAGEDDON

That is how crazy this this market is… but hey… that just means the opportunities when these stocks do turn to ARE JUST AS BIG.  So when in Rome… do as the Romans do… or when in Vancouver… just act like your typical How Street Vulture and wait until prices are at such extremes… you the vulture, appear to the mass of dead and dying companies… as a ‘White Knight.’  Prices extremes which we are currently experiencing among many junipr mining companies.

The ‘White Knights’ who suddenly appear parading with boatloads of cash to save the venture exchange are the very vultures who have come to feast upon the wasteland of dead companies that currently litter the market.  We are not talking about cheap crappy companies… no…. we are taking about an unprecedented buying event when you are able to buy companies close to their 2009 lows.  Some companies are even trading below their 2009 lows.  Make no mistake, these very same vultures are one reason the market ends up in the perilous conditions.  The attitude of looking out for ‘numero uno’ and not what is in the best interest of the company.  Maybe a re-evaluation of investment goals is needed for the entire industry before we see change of how investors and financiers treat the underlying ‘investment vehicles’ who have billion dollar projects and are trying to build mines which trade for less than $10M valuation. 


At any rate… if you can’t see the vultures circling in the air in the tepid venture sun…. if you can’t smell the stench of death in the air… maybe you should have another look at the sky.  Maybe you should smell the air again.  The vultures have come to gorge themselves on companies that have bled in the streets, they have come to feast and drink and take what is theirs and pick the meat to the bone.  

DEATH IS WHAT I SMELL AND THE VULTURES ABOVE ARE SETTLING IN TO PICK AWAY AT THEIR HALF DEAD PREY.   

One such company Excelsior Mining MIN.V is developing a future copper mine in  Arizona is selling for cheaper than most Howe Street Pumps.   MIN has been absolutely slaughtered in the last 18 months dropping from a $0.80 high to the paltry $0.12 it closed on Friday, cheaper than any other time in its short two year history.  I might suggest that this is the time to start buying companies like this.


How cheap is MIN @ 0.12???  $8M raised @ $0.60 in 2011 says it all… AN 80% DISCOUNT!

 ARE YOU KIDDING ME? $8M was sold at $0.60 in 2011 and the price is only $0.12 today? If I bought the financing I would probably shoot the guy that sold me that paper.  Either they completely misjudged the project and priced it way too expensive or the financier is one that likes to rape and pillage its own companies liek most Howe Street Vultures.  The current valuations for a development project like Excelsior’s Gunnison ISR Copper Project with 498Mt of Measured & Indicated copper is completely nutty and absolutely insane.  ‘Forbes West’ should be thrown into the insane asylum for not buying shares in the open market at this price.  Almost all the paper issued was priced 4 to 5 times the current market.  You are getting MIN.V at an 80% discount to what the ‘pros’ originally financed Gunnison at.  And believe you me… they bought in at that price thinking they would make money and Excelsior would go higher, not lose nearly 70%-80% of their original investment. 

  • $3M at $0.50 in fall of 2010
  • $8M at $0.60 in spring of 2011
  • $1M at $0.30 in summer of 2012
 MIN.V is one of those stories where you just scratch your head and wonder why it has gotten this cheap? Oh never mind, it trades on the Vulture Exchange where the savvy pros wait till companies are near extinction before taking large percentages of companies that should never have been trading at that price in the first place.  Like where MIN is today.
 

Who wants a HUGE CHUNK OF MIN.V CHEAPER THAN ANY ONE ELSE HAS GOT IT?

 I am sure you could do a million at $0.15 in a second, the way copper is breaking down… hell, MIN might do a million at $0.10 tomorrow if you promise to by another $1M on the open market.



In-situ Recovery: Bigger is not always better

Gunnison isn’t the biggest or the best of the copper projects.  It doesn’t have the highest Net Present Value and projects like Schaft Creek or Casino will produce 3 to 4 times the rate of Gunnison or Florence, but what they don’t make up on MASS VALUE they make up in efficiency.  MIN and CUV’s ISR projects in Arizona are undeniably the biggest bang for your investment buck anywhere on the market.  When times of uncertainty are over the entire industry; ISR projects like MIN’s Gunnison and CUV’s Florence are much easier to put in production at a much lower cost than their billion dollar cousins.  They are also located in the US which makes these two projects strategic to US interests.  Especially in an age where the 'GRID' is expanding and EVERYONE IS ELECTRIFYING.

Copper was a strategic metal in the past and it will continue to be in the future even if industrialization and urbanization are fading trends, which they are not.  Remote locations in BC and the Yukon whose capital costs are likely underestimated are much more likely to get mothballed over a US ISR project whose capital costs are less than 10% the capital cost of typical 125,000tpd copper-gold mine.  An added benefit to ISR projects in the current escalating cost environment is that while most massive mines being built today are facing increased costs, Curis’ Florence Project capital costs dropped 18% from PEA to prefeasibility.  This can only bode well for MIN’s Gunnison Project which is expected to be upgraded to prefeasibility later this year.

What makes Gunnison ideal in this type of market environment over a project like Schaft Creek or any of the other massive copper porphyry projects in the Pacific Rim? 

  1. LOW OPERATING COSTS.  Gunnison PEA states $0.68 operating cost per pound and Florence prefeasibility shows $0.79 per pound.  
  2. EXTREMELY LOW CAPEX.  The Gunnison Project has an initial capex of $324M while Florence comes is $198M.
 Freeport would go out of business trying to manipulate the price low enough to put Gunnison or Florence out of business.  So where is the risk?   Most cheap copper mines especially in Chile and Peru are losing their cost advantage as labor heads towards a ‘global wage.’

Follow the link to watch a You Tube Video about in-situ mining and Excelsior's Gunnison Project...



Financing risk?     … Gunnison & Florence together cost 1/8 the capex of Copper Fox’s Schaft Creek.

Production risk???                       …$0.68 and $0.79 per pound for Gunnison and Florence ISR Copper.


In-situ recovery makes Excelsior’s Gunnison ISR Copper Project competitive against any copper project in the world at the fraction of the price.   They are generally not huge producers because ISR needs an oxide resource to be effective which is generally a small portion of any deposit, but in Arizona the porphyry copper deposits are largely oxidized making them ideal for in-situ recovery.   Thus the market is a niche market and impossible to supply the entire copper market which is a reason this style of copper recovery largely fell out of use in favor of conventional mining of the entire multibillion tonne copper deposits.  ISR copper projects are thus a niche market, but important in this day in age of escalating prices simply because the method of recovery is inexpensive when compared to conventional mining which largely depends on labor and fuel as two main operating expenses.

There are no ISR copper mines in production, but ISR works well with uranium recovery and other minerals like potash and was originally designed for copper recovery.   The downsides of ISR is that it does not maximize the recovery of the resource nor is it very effective when trying to leach a non-oxidized deposit so the entire resource needs to be oxidized, but it is fast becoming the most inexpensive and cost effective way to recover copper from smaller mostly oxidized copper deposits like the 500Mt Gunnison ISR Copper Project or Curis’ Florence.  There is a reason Forbes West has invested in Excelsior and Hunter Dickinson is riding Curis.  These two ISR projects in Arizona are EASY MONEY and LOW RISK (low CAPEX, LOW OPEX).   



Undeniably the Cheapest Copper Development Project on Any Market

Excelsior Mining is undeniably the most undervalued copper stock on the venture market.  Many mining stocks will trade at a discount for a while because of persisting market conditions. The need for exploration is declining while the need to finance and develop some of the next generation of mines is upon us.  The focus over the next 10 years in the mining sector while be to finance and bring some of these development projects into production and MIN-V Gunnison project is definitely a project that will produce copper under any economic condition and has the ability along with Florence to supply the US with 150M lbs of copper per annum for next quarter of a century.   At a time when copper is still critical for many things our society needs like expanding ‘The Grid.’
  • MIN - The PRICE IS RIGHT @ $6M… Essentially a GROUND FLOOR OPPORTUNITY
  • High NPV @ $883M (pre-tax)
  • High IRR @ 40% (pre-tax)
  • Fast Payback @ 2.7 years
  • LOW CAPITAL COSTS of $325M
  • LOW CASH COST PRODUCER @ $0.68 per pound of copper

HUGE LEVERAGE! The best potential copper investment on the market with a $6M market capitalization which is less than 1% of the Gunnison’s Project’s pre-tax NPV!  MIN is currently priced as cheap as they come.

BEST BANG FOR YOUR BUCK.  It is not like they have to spend $5B to get those discounted cash flows like most other copper projects.  For every $1 spent MIN returns $2.73 in Net Present Value. Copper Fox returns $0.16 per $1 spent on capital costs.  WOW!
 


Potential for Even Better Economics… Improved Recoveries/Faster Leach Times

MIN has an excellent chance of improving the economics when they upgrade the project to prefeasibility which is due to be released in the second half of 2013.  Recently the company announced leach times 25% faster than used in the PEA from and announced dramatically improved recoveries greater than 80% which are more in line with what Curis is estimating at around 70%.
 


A COMPARISON OF IN-SITU RECOVERY TO CONVENTIONAL MINING

Exclesior Mining Corp MIN.V Curis Resources CUV.V Copper Fox Metals CUU.V Western Copper
WRN.TO
Gunnison (ISR) Florence (ISR) Schaft Creek Casino
Resource:
M & I (Mt) 498.4Mt 429Mt 1,229Mt 1,057Mt
Grade 0.33% 0.32% 0.44%CuEq 0.49%CuEq
Economics:
Stage PEA Prefeasibility Feasibility Feasibility
Initial Capex $324M $196M $3.256B $2.456B
Pre Tax IRR 40% 38% 10.13% 20.1%
Pre Tax NPV $883M @ 8% $875M @ 7.5% $513M @ 8% $2.82B @ 8%
Life of Mine 25 21 years 22 years
Payback 2.7 years 2.4 years 6.5 years 3 years
Copper Price $2.50 $3.00 $3.25 $3.00
Operating  Cost per lb. of Cu $0.68 $0.79 $1.15 (0.81)
Total Copper Production 1.706B lbs. 1.695B lbs. 4.875B lbs. 3.762B lbs.
Recovery (ISR only) 54% 70% - -
Valuation Metrics:
Market Cap as per TMX $6M $43M $251M $78M
Market Cap to NPV (Appreciation potential) >1% 5% 49% 3%
NPV to CAPEX
(Bang for your buck)
2.73 times 4.46 times 0.16 times 1.15 times


 China nearing the end of growth? Have fundamentals changed that much in 18 months?    

Is the end of the commodities super cycle really here?
Will demand for copper, iron ore and other industrial commodities just fall off the face of the Earth?

Has the Western World solved its Debt Crisis? Has the need to stockpile assets abated? Has the worlds Central Banks stopped printing cash?  Are they going to any time soon?

Has China all of a sudden stopped building its grid? Has China stopped urbanizing?
Has the world stopped growing?



Maybe a few minor tweaks to the theme…

Maybe a few modifications and changes need to be made to the outlook in the base case for what we are too expect in the future when it comes to China and the rest of the developing world which is expanding and consuming and entering into the current global financial system creating wealth for themselves.… but in no way has anything really changed in the world over the last 10 years and in no way are things about to change in the next ten years.  We are right smack dab in the middle of this materials ‘supercycle’ which is not yet over and what we are experiencing right now is more of a lull than any real curtailing of global growth.

If the themes were over, underlying commodities prices would be in the gutter with the stocks but they are not and still elevated well above long term averages while most stocks trade at shell values. 

  1. China is still urbanizing and continuing on a trend. 
  2. India has yet to urbanize and most likely will start to urbanize as wealth gap between Indians and Chinese widens over the next 15 years.  
  3. Maybe there is a shift in China towards vertically integrating their economy and value and creating wealth for its citizens, but that is a shift the will occur over the next generation and not overnight like some think.
 Our commodities stocks are at pathetic levels because the developing world is broke!  Commodities prices are at elevated levels because the developing world is growing and has all the money.  Seems pretty simple to me.

You have stalled growth in 1/6 of the world’s population and 5/6 of the world’s population stilling wanting and needing to grow.  China already has the ability to become the world’s bank and whose GDP will pass the USA sometime in the next 10 years.  China can fund the world’s growth and leave the broke US and Europe in the dust.  The Chinese have the capacity to now dominate the world financially.  As China’s economy vertically integrates with decreasing dependence from Europe and US to buy Chinese to support growth, the Chinese economy will move closer towards American standards.  If China has a GDP per capita of the US which is the trend… their economy will dwarf anything ever seen.  The Chinese will be the consumer market of the second half of the 21st Centruy… 10 to 100 times bigger than what Baby Boomers currently represent.  The future for consumerism will be China.  



Chinese Urbanization Table

2012 2020 2030
Population 1,347,350,000 1,424,676,272 1,527,604,386
Growth Rate 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Urbanization Ratio 51% 60% 65%
Urban Population 687.148,500 854.805,763 992,942,851
Net Migration to Urban Centers - 167,657,263 138,137,088
Capacity of Urban Centers at Current Levels 90,000,000 -77,657,263 -215,794,351
Estimate persons per Unit 1.5 1.5 1.5
Housing Units Needed 60,000,000 unit surplus 51.7M units deficit 143.8M units deficit


















The table above should highlight just how much more growth and infrastructure is needed in China.

At the current predicted rates, by 2020 all that empty real estate you see on CNBC will be occupied and another 50M housing units will need to be built to hit the 60% mark which is the equivalent of 10 new Lower Mainland’s.   Another 150 million units in the following decade will be needed just to meet China’s stated urbanization target of 65% by 2030.  Only then will the rates slightly tail off but China’s goal is 70% to 75% by 2050…  so not really much tailing off if those targets are accurate.

Want to bet against China?  Not me.  Not this time in history.
 

There is no way that china is finished with growthIT IS INCONCEIVABLE AT THIS POINT.

There are some new trends appearing which astute entrepreneurs will take advantage of, but the trend for infrastructure build out and vertical integration in China including being a leader in electrification and GRID build out has me thinking copper will be in demand for at least the next generation… perfect for a low cost mine like Gunnison in a rising cost environment.   Graphene could take its place eventually, but its price will be cost prohibitive for a very long time.
 


Excelsior Mining…  A diamond on the Vulture
 

I don’t care what copper does over the short term.  It has broken down out of a multi-year triangle which is never good for upside appreciation over the short term, but the stocks are so cheap they can’t get any cheaper.   Use any price drop to start to pick up your favorite companies because most of these companies will not get any cheaper and if they do it will only be fractionally compared to the 80% to 90% loss in value of many of these companies trading on the venture market.



There is no other future copper producer sitting on the market for $6M. 
 

Undeniably MIN is the best priced investment when it comes to highly leveraged future mine. This is the BEST COPPER INVESTMENT on the market at the current price.  
  • When compared to its peer CUV.V it still trades at an 85% discount which is a pricing mismatch for two projects that are nearly identical.  
  • When compared to other massive multi-billion cooper projects MIN looks attractive because it costs less than a tenth the capital of a major copper mine.
  • When compared on an operating basis to ANY COPEPR MINE, ISR projects have the cheapest operating costs and with minimal labor and fuel requirements are not exposed to two main factors in rising operating costs.
 There is no better copper investment on the open market and soon you will see the vultures circling over this ‘Diamond in the Rough.’  If you were looking for a TOP PICK COPPER STOCK that you could overweight on a super cheap entry… there is no better stock than MIN.V…

I have said it 10 times already, but I will say it one more so you remember…
 

THERE IS NO BETTER COPPER STOCK AT ANY PRICE THAN Excelsior Mining MIN.V at $0.12.

 

Christopher Skidmore

Beat the Market Stock Picks